As the US CX season is in the rearview mirror, we thought it was the perfect time to renew our State of the Sport Series, where we try (our best!) to analyze and understand trends impacting cycling. Today, we’re turning our attention to a review of the long-standing PACX series. With the help of anonymized data supplied and prepared by our friend Colin Reuter at BikeReg, we analyzed the state of local CX racing.

I caught the bike racing bug in 2021 coming right out of the pandemic. After trying CX at Rainey Park (RIP), I was hooked and happily attending local races in the Northeast including those in the PACX. I’ve heard that “CX is dead” or at least different than it used to be. As someone who’s only seen a post-pandemic version of the sport, I wanted to understand why and put a fine-tooth comb on what that really meant.

Why PACX?

Local Race Series – I wanted to focus on a local race series (over national scale races) as these series are community-oriented and will provide an interesting measure of continued interest in CX amongst a somewhat controlled cohort (i.e., Mid-Atlantic & Northeast racers).
Clean Data – The PACX Series has been reporting to crossresults.com since 2016 (nice!)
Relevance – I spent most of my time this season racing in PA. As a NYC-based team, the ebbs and flows in PACX attendance is something we directly feel and makes for an interesting comparison of perception vs. reality.

Setting the Stage

I had the chance to speak with pro-CX racer Rachel Rubino, whose based out of Philly, and Mike Festa, the race promoter for Crossasaurus Awesome and long-time Mid-Atlantic CX racer, on their experience and what we might expect to see in the data. One of the first things Mike Festa mentioned (and I’ve heard this from others) is that CX in the Mid-Atlantic was at its height in the mid-2010’s. This is consistent with race result data indicating a peak in results reported and number of CX events held from 2014 – 2016.

**Note**: As PACX data was only available starting in 2016, this chart presents total results reported and races held in the Mid-Atlantic region

Some helpful background and observations on this first chart from my conversations with Rachel Rubino and Mike Festa:

SSCXWC - In 2013, Single Speed Cyclocross World Championships (“SSCXWC”) was held for the first time on the East Coast in Philadelphia at the Belmont Plateau, which is right before the peak in Mid-Atlantic CX participation in 2014.
MACX and PACX - During the heyday of Mid-Atlantic CX, there were two main series: MACX and PACX. MACX was the premier race series that included a number of two-day UCI races (such as Nittany Lion, Charm City, and HPCX) and was akin to the current USCX series. In the second half of 2010’s there potentially was an oversaturation of races between the PACX & MACX (e.g., two races held on the same day both within driving distance). In 2018 and 2019, the UCI races in MACX fell off the calendar and the series dissolved post-pandemic.
The Pandemic – Yes, I’m sorry, we are briefly talking about the pandemic. The pandemic was the grim reaper for cycling events across disciplines. In 2020 there was effectively no bike racing and some folks discovered that they just like riding their bike for fun and never came back to the CX scene.
Gravel Boom - The elephant in the room that I’ve not yet mentioned is gravel. Back in 2019 we did a large profile on the rise of gravel and it would seem that the gravel surge has played a role in lower CX participation. At the time of publishing, Rasputitsa ridership was at its height in 2017 – 2019, which coincides with the decrease in CX in the Mid-Atlantic region over the same period. If the CX interest cycle is an indicator, gravel might soon be headed into a slump, but I’ll leave that for someone else to prove.

Now, down the rabbit hole we go.

PACX Participation

First, let’s look at the same chart of results and events as above but restricted to the PACX series. In reviewing the PACX specific data, Mike & Rachel both cautioned that turnout at local races are more sensitive to fluctuations in weather. The sunk costs of DNS’ing a local race are small compared to larger races….remember when we drove to Charm City in a hurricane in 2022. Per Mike Festa, 2018 and 2023 were two seasons that stood out as particularly rainy and muddy (these happen to be years that the number of races held were equal to or higher than the prior year but had lower turnout).

The decrease in PACX turnout from 2016 - 2019 aligns with the decrease seen more broadly in the Mid-Atlantic region. Post-pandemic, however, it looks like PACX is in a recovery period with a race added to the series calendar each year and a material increase (39%) in participation in 2024 compared to 2023. Some of the 2024 uptick could be due to high turnout events like Sly Fox returning to the calendar in 2024 and some unfortunate race cancellations (e.g., Croton) that pushed a few extra NYC folks to sign up for races in PA. In speaking with Rachel, the uptick might also be attributed to folks taking a step back from UCI races whether due to cost, accessibility, or recent rule changes that has redirected excitement toward the local racing scene.

When it comes to vibes at a race, my rough heuristic is how crowded it feels. In looking at average participation (i.e., results reported / PACX races held in a given year), it is lower post pandemic. However, it’s worth noting 2024 average participation per race was only 5.0% lower than the pre-pandemic average of 221 (i.e., 10 fewer results reported per race). Given the background on MACX & PACX, my hunch is that the distribution of attendance at races would indicate that pre-pandemic, the popular events had higher attendance and less popular events had lower attendance as compared to 2024 races. Additionally, pre-pandemic the PACX series ran longer (through December) whereas this year the series ended in November. Post-Thanksgiving there tends to be a bit of attrition in turnout so that could be impacting the numbers as well.

In addition to turnout, I wanted to understand whether individual racers are showing up to more or less races in a given year. In looking at total results reported over unique racers participating in PACX, this was fairly consistent from 2016 onwards and the level of participation is relatively equal between male and female racers. What this chart may overstate, is that in 2016 – 2019 there were more East Coast races on the calendar, whereas in 2022 – 2024 there were limited options outside of PACX in the Mid-Atlantic.

PACX Demographics

Next, I wanted to understand if there has been a demographic shift at CX events that would indicate that certain fields are more popular that others. My hunches were that [1] there was some demographic that caught the CX bug and have continued to race and [2] there was a “lost generation” of folks that got swept into gravel, and [3] there might be an uptick in junior participation as kids of CX racers join the sport.

Looking first at the men’s data, there does appear to be an age drift. The 50+ Men demographic comprised the highest proportion of results in 2024 and reflected a substantial increase over 2016, while the 19 - 39 Men and and 40 - 49 Men demographics saw decreases in their relative participation level (which provides some initial support for my first and second hunch). Looking at the women’s data, we do see an age drift (although it’s less pronounced). What’s very exciting from the data is the jump in U19 Girls share of results, which have more than doubled since 2016. Mike Festa noted that the recent junior numbers may be impacted by some overlap with the Pennsylvania Interscholastic Cycling League (known as PICL, a youth off-road development and cycling league that's part of NICA) which created a few scheduling conflicts this year.

PACX Churn and Addition Rate

I really wasn’t sure what to expect on churn and addition rate. I was initially struck by the high year-over-year churn rate. Historically, roughly 50% of PACX participants do not compete in a PACX race in the following year (with 2019 being an exception due to the pandemic). What is encouraging, is that the 2023 churn rate (i.e., racers that participated in 2023 that returned in 2024) is meaningfully lower than the trending average. It’s hard to know whether this might be the start of a trend or a one-off decrease — only time will tell.

Turning our attention to new rider additions, I was also surprised to learn that a good chunk of the 2024 PACX attendees started racing CX only in the last few years. Some interesting observations:

30% did their first PACX race in 2024
60% did their first PACX race in the last three years
16% did their first CX race in 2024
43% did their first CX race in the last three years

A special shoutout to the 35 PACX racers that have been participating in CX races since 2006 or earlier. 18 years seems appropriate grounds for a lifetime achievement award.

So is CX Dead?

“CX is dead” is of course a melodramatic phrase. But if you are asking “is CX different than it used to be” — then at least according to some ways of looking at the data — yes. Participation and races are down and the demographic make-up at races have changed. That being said, a lot of the churn and addition rate data look really promising and participation per race looks like it’s remained healthy!

This was a timeboxed exercise looking at some summary data and it should go without saying that data doesn’t always capture reality or how people feel about the situation. When talking to Rachel Rubino, she was analyzing the data through the lens of “is PACX answering the call on what our region wants and how does that support the season that people want to see?” Maybe a shorter season for example is what works for the region in the here and now — which would mean less races — but not a worse CX community.

I for one am excited about Mid-Atlantic CX in the years to come, and I’m not alone. In December it was announced that DCCX in Washington D.C. was selected to be the site of the Pan American Cyclocross Championships in 2025 and 2026 and will be a 2-day race for the first time since the pandemic. Who knows? Maybe DCCX will provide a boon similar to 2013 SSXCWC at Belmont Plateau!