Let’s get this out of the way first: we love the Grant’s Tomb Criterium. As racers, photographers, and race directors it is one of our favorite days of the year. Which meant we were excited as anyone for the event to return a few weeks ago, after a two year COVID hiatus, complete with its first-ever summer date on the calendar. From our perspective as spectators and racers, the 2022 edition of the Grant’s Tomb Criterium was a grand success with great hangs, fast racing. An all around good time. But as keen watchers of registration data and race turnout, there were a few aspects of the numbers that give us pause when it comes to the outlook for bike racing in NYC.

Based on this year’s State of the Sport analysis, it seems safe to say that any post-COVID bike boom does not appear to be benefiting USAC racing in the tri-state area. Most of the local registration data we have analyzed is down compared to pre-pandemic levels. And as pleased as we were to see the return of weekday racing at Floyd Bennett Field, with the same race director (Tom Mains) sustaining racing in Prospect Park, we are concerned to hear that CRCA membership levels are down significantly. Given CRCA’s volunteer focused model is responsible for a significant chunk of the local calendar, this sets off some alarm bells. Which brings us to the 2022 edition of the CRCA Grant’s Tomb Criterium…

Grant’s Tomb Criterium Registration Overview

The chart below shows registration for every edition of the Grant’s Tomb Criterium since 2014. Similar to what we wrote about the 2022 Bear Mountain Classic, turnout for the 2022 Grant’s Tomb Criterium was the lowest we have seen in many years. The 2019 race makes for a difficult comparison given it was the largest on record by a sizable margin, but this year’s race was 20% smaller than that final pre-pandemic edition and 12% smaller than average turnout from 2016 to 2018 (754 registrants). This year’s calendar shift from March to July could have been a potential drag on turnout (for some reason NYC cyclists love early season racing) but the simple fact is that, similar to other CRCA Open Races this season, Grant’s Tomb shrunk compared to recent pre-pandemic years.

Because field structures have largely been unchanged for the past four editions of the Grant’s Tomb Criterium, we can break this data down one level further and look at turnout by field for the past several years. Several of the mid-category Men’s fields sold-out this year, including the M4/5, Men 4, and Men 3/4 (which saw its field limit increased to 115 riders in 2019). But outside of these reliable sell-outs - those three fields have sold out in every recent edition of the Grant’s Tomb Criterium - nearly every other field at the race shrunk this year.

Grant’s Tomb Criterium Change in Registration

That prior chart has a lot of data squeezed into it and we’re mostly concerned with how registration trends have changed over time. So the chart below looks at just that - the change in the number of registrants by field. Registration declines for the 2022 edition of the race were heavily weighted toward a few, typically larger fields, particularly the Men’s Category 5/novice and the Elite Men, both of which lost thirty or more riders this year. But again, outside of those core mid-category Men’s fields, registration was down for every field except the Masters, which picked up 2 additional riders compared to 2019.

Converting that chart into percentage change in 2022 registrations compared to 2019 underscores that the declines were broad based, with the majority of fields at the Grant’s Tomb Criterium declining by more than 20% compared to 2019. In thinking about causes, the shift from a March date, when Grant’s Tomb Criterium served as a season opener for many racers, could potentially have impacted turnout negatively. But the bottom line is that this is yet another race where registration trends are showing a decline from pre-pandemic levels.

WHat Concerns us Most about Grant’s Tomb Criterium Registration

Beyond seemingly broad based declines in local race turnout post-COVID, there are specific trends from the Grant’s Tomb Criterium that leave us especially worried about the future of bike racing in NYC - specifically turn out for development categories. We’ve touched on how logistical challenges for the Bear Mountain Classic and the early morning start for Central Park racing may be hurdles for new racers. But the Category 5/Novice field at Grant’s Tomb Criterium has been an ‘easy’ sell-out field for every recent edition of the race, even inching one rider above the field limit in 2019 (likely due to a registration cancellation). But per the chart below, registration for this field absolutely plummeted this year. On the plus side, the other core Men’s fields still sold out, but for whatever reason the introductory Men’s category field at Grant’s Tomb shrunk dramatically.

This sharp decline in newer racer turnout is problematic because as we detailed several years ago, the lifecycle for a typical NYC bike racer is only 1-2 seasons. Thus an active and sustainable racing scene is incredibly reliant on bringing in a new crop of racers every single year. Our hope was that the supposed post-COVID bike boom would make this easier, but if anything the opposite seems to be happening with the smallest Men’s Category 5/Novice field since at last 2016. And this trend is not isolated to the Men’s side of the Grant’s Tomb Criterium - Women’s 4/5 and Women’s 3/4/5 registration declined precipitously for the 2022 edition of the race:

Grant’s Tomb Criterium: Turnout for Women’s Fields

One final bit of number crunching: the declining turnout for the Women’s 3/4/5 fields unfortunately also applies more broadly to all of the Women’s fields at the Grant’s Tomb Criterium. While registration in total was down this year, we think Women’s field turnout is a significant data point because the Grant’s Tomb Criterium includes one of the most comprehensive set of Women’s races that you’ll find four separate races: Women’s 4/5, Women’s 3/4/5, Women’s 2/3 + Master’s, and Elite Women. Unfortunately, even with this broad set of categories, total Women’s Fields registrations for the 2022 Grant’s Tomb Criterium was the smallest in the last four editions of the race, with those fields also making up the smallest portion of total race registration in recent history - declining significantly compared to the 2017 and 2018 races.

Grant’s Tomb Criterium Registration Conclusions

Where does this leave us? Like we said, as racers and spectators the 2022 edition of the Grant’s Tomb Criterium was a top-notch experience and we’ll be back next year. But the numbers underlying the event are anxiety inducing, especially as it pertains to the development category racers. If the biggest USAC race in NYC is struggling to bring in new racer registrations, what does signal about the outlook for the racer population over the next 3-5 years? And we did not even get into the significant losses for the two Elite fields, which were down roughly 30% compared to 2019.

Do these data points suggest that we are going to reach a point where CRCA lacks sufficient membership to sustain the current race calendar? The Club operates as a giant flywheel with members contributing the volunteer workforce required to host upwards of 15 events per year. But fewer CRCA members means fewer marshals and fewer volunteers to do the heavily lifting associated with the CRCA Club Series in Central Park, the Grant’s Tomb Criterium, and the Bear Mountain Classic. To be clear - we don’t know what this breakeven point is, or if the Club is even approaching it, but the shrinking turnout from new racers at the Grant’s Tomb Criterium worries us.

We’ll look for additional opportunities to explore this concern in more detail in future States of the Sport. With Prospect Park racing also winding down for the season, we’ll try to find time to look at Brooklyn registration data as well. Stay tuned.